Introduction

2014 saw good returns for diversified investors as the global economy continued to grow and monetary conditions remained easy, but a combination of uneven global growth, worries about deflation, plunging commodity prices, soft growth in Australia and geopolitical concerns meant returns were uneven across asset classes. Balanced super funds look to have had returns of around 9%, which is pretty good after the double digit returns of the previous two years. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global economic and investment outlook in simple point form.

Four lessons from 2014

Key themes for 2015


Source: Bloomberg; AMP Capital

Key risks for 2015 – there’s always something!

Six indicators to watch

Four reasons why low inflation/deflation is more likely than a surge in inflation

Five reasons to be optimistic on the US and $US

Three reasons why China will see growth around 7%

Four reasons for optimism about Europe

Four reasons not to despair on Australia

Four implications of the commodity price downtrend

Five reasons pointing to the risk of a share market correction in the first half of the year…

...but five reasons why the trend in shares likely remains up


Source: Bloomberg; AMP Capital

Eight things investors should always remember

About the Author

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist at AMP Capital is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds. He also provides economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues affecting, or likely to affect, all asset markets.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.